Housing Promises are Cheap. Real Reform Takes Guts They Don't Have • Lucky For Some

Well, we are back in that familiar time of the political cycle where politicians suddenly realise they have a voting constituency and open up their pockets like a geriatric benefactor. Just two weeks into the election run-up, we’re seeing a pissing contest for votes. It’s like clockwork. The moment an election is called, politicians transform into generous fairy godparents, waving their policy wands with promises to solve everything from housing affordability to regional development.

There’s a number of questions that voters should be asking themselves as we hear the usual grovelling drivel, claiming to assist regular ‘battlers’ with cost-of-living expenses. Like why did we have to wait until now to see this support? Or, where did all this money suddenly come from? (Both items that deserve a write-up in themselves). But for me, the most important question is: what is the real plan to reverse wealth inequality, make meaningful tax-reform, and invest in a nation that gives everyone a fair chance?

The Great Australian Nightmare

It’s no secret that housing in Australia, courtesy of a number of utterly blunderous incentive schemes setup by the Howard government, has become a double edged sword in defining modern wealth. By virtue of being around for a few decades longer we’ve seen regular ‘mum and dad’ investors become ludicrously wealthy whilst many young Australians are now complete locked out of purchasing a home. Whilst the contributing factors are multifactorial, it should be pretty clear that a clear, longterm (read - multi term government) plan is necessary to reverse an issue that has emerged over decades under the purview of both parties.

So you’ll be happy to know, that both parties, now have solutions to solve this probably. 2025 is the year! Labor’s headline-grabbing $10 billion plan promises to build 100,000 new homes for first home buyers. Sounds impressive on the nightly news, doesn’t it? Except when you read the fine print: the sods won’t even begin turning until 2026-27, with homeowners moving in the year after. That’s conveniently after the next election cycle – meaning if things go sideways, they can kick the can down the road or quietly abandon the project altogether with minimal political consequence.

And when Housing Minister Clare O’Neil says these homes will “in all likelihood” be income tested, that vagueness should set off alarm bells for anyone who’s been paying attention. “In all likelihood” is political-speak for “we’ll decide the details later, after you’ve voted for us.” It’s like buying a car where the dealer promises you’ll “probably” get an engine.

Meanwhile, the Coalition’s counter-offer would allow first-time buyers of newly built homes to deduct mortgage payments from income taxes. This purportedly would save a family with average income about $11,000 annually, or $55,000 over five years. It sounds generous until you consider what it actually does: it primarily benefits those already wealthy enough to secure substantial mortgages in the first place. It potentially drives up property prices by increasing buying power without addressing supply constraints. And it further entrenches the tax system’s bias toward property ownership – effectively another handout to those who need it least.

Both plans share the same fundamental flaw: they treat the symptoms of Australia’s housing crisis while carefully avoiding the insidious pathology that needles away like a silent malignancy.

Neither addresses the structural tax policies that have turned housing from a basic need into an investment vehicle. Neither challenges the negative gearing arrangements that allow property investors to reduce their taxable income. Neither confronts the capital gains tax discounts that make property speculation so damn attractive to the wealthy.

The cruel irony is that while these politicians perform on stage, thousands of Australians are sleeping in cars, couch-surfing, having their tents torn down by councils or paying extortionate rents that prevent them from ever saving for a deposit.

The History of Broken Promises

If you’re experiencing déjà vu, you’re not alone. This election’s housing promises are just the latest verse in a political song we’ve been hearing for decades. Feel like a jog down memory lane?

Cast your mind back to the 2019 election, when Scott Morrison introduced the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, allowing first home buyers to purchase with just a 5% deposit. The government would guarantee the remaining 15% needed to avoid lender’s mortgage insurance. The Coalition promised this would help 10,000 Australians annually achieve the dream of home ownership. The result? House prices continued their meteoric rise, with Sydney and Melbourne seeing increases of over 25% in the following two years. The scheme merely helped a lucky few get into an increasingly unaffordable market while doing nothing to address the underlying causes of housing unaffordability.

Or how about Labor’s 2016 negative gearing reform promises? Bill Shorten proposed limiting negative gearing to new properties and reducing the capital gains tax discount from 50% to 25%. These were actual structural reforms that economists broadly supported as necessary for addressing housing affordability. After Labor’s electoral defeat, they promptly abandoned these policies, with Anthony Albanese declaring in 2021 that Labor would make “no changes to negative gearing” if elected.

Let’s go back even further to Kevin Rudd’s 2007 National Rental Affordability Scheme, which promised to build 50,000 affordable rental homes. By the time the scheme was scrapped in 2014, only around 38,000 units had been delivered, with reports the scheme ended up being more value for investors than tenants!

The pattern is painfully clear: politicians make grand promises about housing during elections, implement half-measures that fail to address the structural issues, then quietly move on when those policies inevitably fail to solve the problem. Meanwhile, the wealth gap between property owners and non-owners continues to widen like a canyon in an earthquake.

The thing that is cooked here is not that this keeps happening. It’s that we keep voting for and accepting governments that roll out the same trash every election. We know exactly what needs to be done. Numerous government inquiries, economic reports, and international examples have laid out the path forward. We don’t lack in solutions. We lack in strong, meaningful, sincere and courageous leadership that will make and follow through on the hard decisions.

Political Courage First

Let’s get this straight: the housing crisis isn’t just about houses. It’s the most visible battlefield in a wider war, the relentless march of wealth inequality in Australia. Sure, we have our own unique brand of stupid policy decisions contributing, but the core issue is stark and increasingly obvious. And while tinkering with tax is part of the answer, the real gaping hole isn’t in the policy prescriptions, it’s in the political will. What we’re witnessing is a profound failure of leadership, a gaping, bluster-filled vacuum where courage and a genuine vision for the country ought to be.

The necessary tax reforms are practically screaming from the pages of countless expert reports. Phase out negative gearing for investors. Reduce the capital gains discount that fuels speculation. Move from stamp duty to land tax. These aren’t fringe ideas; they’re mainstream economic consensus from the Productivity Commission, the Reserve Bank, you name it. Calling them ‘radical’ is a deliberate, self-serving lie peddled by those who benefit from the current rigged system.

But here’s the crucial point often missed in the technical debates: these tax settings aren’t unfortunate accidents. They are deliberate political choices. They represent decades of decisions favouring wealth accumulation through property for established players, effectively pulling up the ladder on younger generations. We’ve built a system where your birth year is a primary determinant of your housing security and wealth potential. Is that the legacy we want? A nation defined by generational lockout?

This isn’t about a lack of solutions. It’s about a lack of guts. We have politicians who excel at focus-grouped euphemisms and short-term electoral bribes, but who are utterly incapable of articulating the inequality crisis honestly and presenting a bold, cohesive vision for tackling it. They tiptoe around negative gearing and CGT reform like they’re landmines, terrified of spooking property-owning voters – the very constituency whose wealth has been inflated by these policies.

Think back to Kevin Rudd framing climate change as a “great moral challenge.” Whatever you thought of his approach, he elevated the issue, demanding it be seen through a moral lens. Where is that leadership on wealth inequality today? Who is willing to state unequivocally: “The widening gap between property owners and renters isn’t just an economic problem; it’s a threat to social stability and the Australian promise of a fair go. Addressing it demands structural change, and we won’t shy away from it”? Instead, the silence is deafening, punctuated only by policies that tinker at the edges. Lucky Country? Only if your timing was right.

So, what do we get this election? Coalition tax schemes that mostly help those who least need it navigate an unaffordable market, and Labor housing promises conveniently delayed until long after the ballots are counted. Both meticulously avoid the structural reforms that might actually make a difference. Neither offers a compelling vision for a fairer Australia, just more band-aids for a system bleeding out. It’s a profound dereliction of duty.

Demand More For Our Future

As we hurtle toward another election day, it’s time to stop accepting the shallow theater of Australian politics and demand substantive change. Both major parties are betting on your apathy. They’re counting on you to be distracted by cost-of-living rebates and first home buyer schemes without examining the structural reforms they consistently avoid. They’re hoping you won’t notice that their “solutions” consistently protect the interests of those who already hold wealth while offering crumbs to those struggling to enter the market.

So what can you do? For starters, don’t let them off the hook. When politicians come knocking or appear at town halls, ask them what they’ll do to address growing wealth inequality. Remember these are decision that will affect your children, grandchildren, nieces, nephews and friends. Ask them specifically about negative gearing reform, capital gains tax discounts, and their plan to ensure housing fulfils its primary purpose as shelter, not as an investment vehicle.

Press them on timelines. Challenge the vague promises and conveniently post-election implementation dates. Demand specifics, not soundbites.

But most importantly, make inequality central to your voting decision. Australia is at a crossroads (and we are poised to follow both the UK and USA down the same well worn path). We have now seen decades of neo-liberalism and “the market will provide” objectively fail us. Housing is but one symptom here but certainly one you can demand clear and measurable action on.

It’s time to prove them wrong. It’s time to vote not just for what benefits you today, but for the kind of Australia we want to build for tomorrow. An Australia where the accident of when you were born doesn’t determine your economic future. An Australia where parents don’t need to bankroll their children’s home deposits. An Australia where essential workers can afford to live in the communities they serve.

If we don’t start to demand action now, we’ll be right back here in three years, listening to the same hollow pledges while the Australian dream slips further from reach for ordinary people. There are many other big problems that MUST be solved. They are existential and we need to start to demand outcomes, not rhetoric. Otherwise an affordable home will be the least of our worries.

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